DUSHANBE, October 10, 2014, Asia-Plus -- Food markets are more stable and prices for most agricultural commodities are sharply lower than they have been in recent years, according to the latest edition of FAO''s biannual Food Outlook report and a new update to the Organization''s monthly Food Price Index, both out on October 9.

Bumper harvests and abundant stockpiles are key factors helping drive down international cereal prices, according to the report.

World wheat production in 2014 is forecast to reach a new record, it says.

For coarse grains, prospects for near-record production levels, combined with already-high inventories point to a very comfortable world supply and demand balance in 2014/15, especially for maize.

All told, world cereal production in 2014 is anticipated to reach 2,523 million tons (2.5 billion tons) — an upward revision of 65 million tons from FAO''s initial forecast in May.  World cereal stocks should hit their highest level in 15 years by the end of the cropping season in 2015.

Global output of oilseeds is also forecast to exceed last season''s record due to further expansion of soybean production.

The Food Outlook anticipates that world sugar production will increase in 2015-16, as well.

Meat production is set to grow moderately in 2014, but not enough to ease prices from their current high levels, while milk production continues to grow steadily in many countries.

The FAO Food Price Index (FPI), also released on October 9, has registered its sixth consecutive monthly drop — the longest period of continuous decline in the value of the index since the late 1990s — averaging 191.5 points in September 2014.

Among the FPI sub-indices, sugar and dairy fell most sharply, followed by cereals and oils, while meat remained firm (more).

The FAO FPI is a trade-weighted index that measures prices of five major food commodities on international markets.

While price trends for these commodities at the macro level are a useful indicator of global trends and can signal when consumer food prices might be at risk, they are not always directly mirrored in national, regional and local markets.

To help spot food price spikes affecting consumers in the developing world, particularly in low-income food-deficit countries (LIFDCs), FAO recently launched a new website that reports abnormally high prices of staple foods in markets in 85 different countries.

In most importing countries of the subregion price of wheat products reportedly remained largely unchanged in August and around their year-earlier levels, with the exception of Kyrgyzstan and Azerbaijan where prices were supported by production shortfalls this years and higher fuel costs.  By contrast, prices of potatoes, another staple, reduced sharply in several countries, with good supplies from the 2014 harvests.

Wheat export prices in the Russian Federation and Ukraine continued to decline in August, but at a slower pace compared to the previous month, and were slightly below their year-earlier levels.  The downward pressure on prices from the bumper 2014 winter harvests, virtually completed by the end of August, was partly offset by strong export demand that contributed to the slowing price decreases. In Kazakhstan, where harvest is currently underway, prices remained unchanged for the third consecutive month.

In Tajikistan, prices of wheat flour were reportedly similar to their levels registered in previous months, and around those of a year earlier.  Despite improved availabilities from the recently concluded harvest, prices were supported by increased transport costs.  Prices of potatoes, another key staple, recorded sharp seasonal declines for the third consecutive month in August, but still remained considerably higher than their year-earlier levels.

Additionally, the Organization produces a quarterly report, Crop Prospects and Food Situation, which focuses on developments affecting food security in developing countries and LIFDCs.