A report released by the Eurasian Development Bank (ADB) this month notes that a food crisis is usually seen as one of the main risks threatening the global economy.  Risks to global food markets are being exacerbated by the intensification of natural disasters, the consequences of the pandemic, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, two major food and fertilizer producers.

The report entitled “Food Security and Agro-Industrial Potential of the Eurasian Region” says that in this context, ensuring food security and developing the potential of the agro-industrial complex have become top priorities for the Eurasian region, which, for the purposes of this report, includes the Eurasian Economic Unity (EAEU) member states, as well as Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

The countries in the region have reportedly achieved a high level of food self-sufficiency over the recent years; however, there is still a high degree of dependence on imports of many product categories classified among the intermediate products of the agro-industrial complex (sowing and breeding materials, pure-bred breeding stock, grandparent herds, agricultural chemistry, etc.), equipment, and special machinery.

The report notes that the countries of the Eurasian region face the challenge of ensuring food security and tapping the huge production, resource, and export potential of the agro-industrial complex.  This potential is based on: 1) the historically shaped specialization of the Eurasian region in agriculture and food production; 2) the production base created to ensure food security; 3) the natural, climatic, and geographical advantages for major players in the region — Russia, Belarus; 4) the underinvestment in the agro-industrial complex; and 5) the significant untapped potential of the agro-industrial complex in Central Asia, which is currently hampered by inefficient regulation of the water and energy complex at the regional level, critically low water use efficiency, as well as transport and logistics constraints.

In Tajikistan, food security is defined as the ability of the state to guarantee that food needs are met at a level that ensures normal activity of the population.  The Government of Tajikistan notes that to achieve this objective, the availability and affordability of an adequate quantity and assortment of food for the population should be ensured.

The National Development Strategy of the Republic of Tajikistan up to 2030 recognizes ensuring food security and access of the population to quality food as a strategic goal.  The Strategy provides for improving the food self-sufficiency to achieve 70% by 2030 and reducing the share of household expenditure on food to 40% of total income 

In Tajikistan, standards are established for the following food products: bread products; potatoes; vegetables; melons and gourds; fruit and berries; meat and meat products; dairy products; eggs; sugar; vegetable oil and fats; fish and fish products; and tea.

The report notes that in Tajikistan self-sufficiency was inadequate only for the following products: sugar; vegetable oils; and grain.

The report says that according to the FAO, average diets are generally sufficient in terms of their energy value in all countries of the Eurasian region, except for Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan: at present, the indicators exceed 2,800 kcal per day (corresponding to the upper boundary of food well-being, which minimizes the risks of hunger, although the diet is insufficient) and are comparable to those of developed countries (over 3,000 kcal per day).

Nevertheless, all the countries still have unbalanced diets in terms of basic nutrients, with cheaper plant-based products prevailing.  For some types of food, per capita consumption remains below the standards adopted in the countries of the Eurasian region.  In Tajikistan, the following types of food, per capita consumption remains below the standards: dairy and meat products; fruit and berries; potatoes; and vegetable oil.

The report notes that the agro-industrial complex is of strategic importance for the social and economic development of the Eurasian region and for global food security.  Agriculture, excluding the food industry, generates a substantial share of gross value added in all countries of the region — ranging from 4% of GDP in Russia to 23% of GDP in Uzbekistan — and is an important source of income for a significant part of the population.  In 2018, about 74 million out of 224 million people lived in rural areas in the Eurasian region — or 33% of the region’s population on average, ranging from 21.4% in Belarus to 73.0% in Tajikistan.

Trends in the development of the agri-food market in the Eurasian region are determined to a large extent by shifts in food production and consumption in Russia.  In 2021, Russia accounted for 75.1% of food production in the region in terms of energy value.  By comparison, Kazakhstan accounted for 9.5%, Uzbekistan for 6.6%, and Belarus for 6.2%. Taken together, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia accounted for only 2.6% of output.

Despite progress in achieving food security, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are net importers of food products.