The Taliban movement, a terrorist organization banned in Russia, will soon become a permitted organization: the Prosecutor-General has filed a lawsuit with the Supreme Court, asking to suspend the ban on the activities of the Islamist movement and few doubt that the verdict will be favorable.  Political scientist and head of the Center for Afghan Political Studies, Andrei Serenko, shared his thoughts on the matter with Moskovsky Komsomolets.

Regarding the grounds for banning this movement in the country, the expert believes that there are no significant grounds.  “In the Chechen Republic, Russia no longer has serious opponents.  On the contrary, Chechnya has become one of the strongholds of Russia's national security system.  We will see how things develop, but at the moment, this is the situation,” the expert said.

“Today, the number of armed groups under Taliban control in Afghanistan is approaching one million. This is a dangerous number,” said Serenko.  “Moreover, the number of militants continues to grow: "jihadi madrasas" are constantly producing new recruits.”

In this regard, the clever wording used to remove the Taliban's status as a terrorist organization – not a cancellation, but a suspension of the ban, a temporary decision – is actually optimal.  No one knows what will happen in the next 2-3-4 years.

"Today's Afghanistan is a plane hijacked by terrorists"

According to the expert, 90 percent of the population is not just below the poverty line, but in dire poverty.  Taliban officials, including the Emir himself, broadcast the following narrative to the population: "We have brought you Sharia, and your welfare is up to Allah."

In other words, we owe you nothing more; do not expect any assistance or social support.
The Taliban is absolving itself of obligations to its citizens while simultaneously terrorizing them.  They have established an extreme regime of intimidation in the country, constantly reinforcing it through their practices. Executions, widely known outside Afghanistan, are a mere fraction of those actually committed.
They kill former officers and officials of the ousted republican regime, rape their wives and daughters.

They kill those they see as their opponents or simply those they deem undesirable.  They kidnap people, and after a week or a month, throw mutilated, tortured bodies…

Today, everyone who has the opportunity is trying to leave Afghanistan. There is no future there, no prospects for life. Even for Afghans, who are by no means spoiled by comfort, this country is absolutely uninhabitable.

The Taliban regime exists only through fear.  The Taliban has no legitimacy, no one ever elected them.  Their legitimacy is at the level of terrorists who hijack a plane. Today's Afghanistan is a plane hijacked by terrorists.

Cynical real politics

The Taliban has established a regime of gender apartheid, the expert says, noting that they have forbidden women from studying and imposed numerous other restrictions.  They have essentially turned women into animate objects.

“Recently, I was sent a video: a woman who dared to speak to a male vendor in the street had her tongue burned with a hot frying pan.  This was in accordance with a decision by a Sharia court. This is the everyday reality in Afghanistan,” said Serenko.  “However, these norms can only be conditionally called Sharia. They are a Taliban interpretation of Sharia.  Essentially, the Taliban is a fanatical religious sect.  And, I might add, it is completely unnatural for the Afghan people.  Even for the Pashtuns, let alone the Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras, and other ethnic groups traditionally living in Afghanistan.”

The Taliban no longer threatens us or our interests, and what they do inside their own country is their internal affair, he further noted. “Let the Afghans sort it out themselves. This is the cynical realpolitik that, unfortunately, there is no escaping from.”

When asked if the suspension of the Taliban's ban is advantageous for Russia, he expressed serious doubts.  “This measure will not make the Taliban our ally, and it may repel and push away the part of the anti-Taliban resistance that still has some illusions about Moscow and hopes for its support,” he said.  

Collapse is inevitable

Serenko notes that the Taliban movement is not a unified organization but rather a collection of factions, each with its own leaders and priorities.  The competition between the “Kandahar" and "Kabul" factions, and regional control by local commanders, is reportedly intensifying. These factions are growing more hostile toward each other, which creates instability within the regime.

The expert highlights that the resistance to the Taliban is intensifying, especially through the National Resistance Front and other opposition groups.  These forces are reportedly carrying out daily attacks against the Taliban, particularly in Kabul, which has made Taliban leaders wary of going out at night.

Despite the Taliban's harsh regime, the expert believes the U.S. still supports them in part to prevent the total collapse of their governance structure.  The U.S. might be trying to humanize the Taliban, with special attention given to figures like Sirajuddin Haqqani, a leader of the "Kabul" faction.

According to the expert, the Taliban regime is ultimately doomed to collapse, much like previous regimes in Afghanistan, such as the communist government and the republic.  They anticipate that a new civil war will break out, and when it does, Russia will be forced to intervene due to its strategic interests in the region.

The expert suggests that although the situation is being carefully monitored, Afghanistan’s instability will soon force the international community, especially Russia, to face the consequences of the Taliban's rule.

In summary, the expert predicts the Taliban's failure is inevitable, driven by internal discord and growing external resistance, and urges Russia to prepare for eventual instability and possible intervention.