Russian troops have gathered along the border with Ukraine in recent months.  Fears of an imminent invasion have been accompanied by strong talk of sanctions by the West that could have an economic impact on Russia.

In turn, Russia could retaliate and inflict considerable economic damage on the World, says Moody’s review released on February 18.   

Experts reportedly discussed two new scenarios produced by Moody's Analytics that capture the different possibilities of the current crisis.

Their scenario discussion covers: the ongoing political situation and the possibilities of an invasion of the Ukraine; alternative sanctions and their impact; threats to European energy security; and the global economic impact.

The review notes that the presence of Russian troops along the border with Ukraine increases the risk of worsening tensions between the two countries and new Western sanctions against Russia.  

This could affect the CIS countries through various channels due to economic, financial and energy ties with Russia, as well as their weak liquidity and external positions.

“However, pressure in the context of the ratings is possible only if tough sanctions lead to a significant slowdown in the Russian economy or lead to a serious disruption of energy supplies,” the agency added. Both are unlikely even in the event of an escalation of tension, they believe there.

The agency added that the most exposed to these risks are Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Moldova and Armenia.