DUSHANBE, September 20, 2010, Asia-Plus  -- The current situation in Tajikistan is unstable, and therefore, incidents such as Sunday’s attack on the military convoy in Rasht district may occur in the country, Tajik political scientist Abdughani Mamadazimov told Asia-Plus Monday afternoon.

He supposed that such incidents were occurring in Tajikistan “within the framework of Islamic jihad and they are controlled from Afghanistan – the center of world’s terrorism, and there ought not to seek trace of northern or western countries here.”

“Signing of peace agreement ending civil war will not resolve all problems related to civil confrontation at once,” said Mamadazimov, “Sunday’s incident shows that permanent instability and civil war in neighboring countries may provoke problems related to civil confrontation and terrorist groups’ invasion from instable Afghanistan.”

The expert reminded that ex-Minister of Emergencies Mirzo Ziyoev, who was one of top military commanders of the United Tajik Opposition (UTO) during Tajikistan''s 1992-97 civil war, was killed in the course of a special operation on disarming illegal armed group in Tavildara district, Rasht Valley (eastern Tajikistan) in July 2009.  Tajik authorities conducted what they said was an anti-drug operation in the area.

“An influential former UTO field commander, Mirzokhuja Ahmadov, lives in Rasht district and if the matter is to neutralize the next former field commander, it may lead to serious confrontation in the area, because hundreds of former field commanders or their supporters living in Rasht district may stand up for him,” Mamadazimov noted.

The political scientist is sure however that the 1990s chaos will not recur in the country.