Experts say the Central Asian is the most vulnerable to climate change impacts.  According to them, the common problems of all five countries of the region are melting glaciers and decreasing surface water runoff, that is, rivers' water that flows over the soil surface into the lakes.  The situation will lead to problems with drinking water access, biodiversity, agriculture, animal breeding, and the economy in general.

The glaciers located in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are the biggest water reserve in the region. From there, the water flows downstream to Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan.

Citing Andrey Podrezov, Head of the Department of Meteorology, Ecology and Environmental Protection at the Kyrgyz-Russian Slavic University, CABAR.asia says that in 2000, the volume of glaciers in Kyrgyzstan was about 418 cubic kilometers.  Since 1960, the glaciers have been melting at a rate of about 1% every year.

"From a worst-case scenario, by 2100, almost 90% of our glaciers will disappear.  According to the moderate scenario, it is about 50-60%. This can lead to a decrease in the surface runoff by about 40%, which is a lot," Podrezov was cited as saying. 

"Water scarcity will change all areas of human activity, from agriculture to urbanization.  Such problems will affect all Central Asian countries.  The first disputes caused by the direct consequences of climate change will be the disputes over water resources," Podrezov noted. 

The situation is not much better in Tajikistan.  According to the results of the assessment of the global climate change impact on glaciers, since 1930, the total area of glaciers in the country has decreased by about 30%.

Tajik ecologist Hasan Asoyev notes that the region faces six environmental threats.

"These are the problems of the Aral Sea drying up, the loss of biodiversity or the disappearance of local flora and fauna, degradation of ecosystems, desertification, climate change processes, and water pollution," Asoyev.

In 2019, the Tajik authorities adopted the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy of the Republic of Tajikistan for the period up to 2030.  However, the government never published the full version of this document.   

The strategy was reportedly adopted amid the experts' criticism of the government's actions.  One of the environmental experts' complaints was the use of Chinese technologies that pollute the environment in the country.

The inflow of Chinese investments and creation of the enterprises with Chinese capital in Tajikistan began in 2005. Since then, dozens of Chinese factories were opened in the country, which, according to the experts, are harmful to the environment, in particular, cement plants in Khatlon province and in Sughd province, as well as the thermal power plant in Dushanbe.

For example, the Dushanbe-2 thermal power plant built using Chinese technologies runs on coal. Last year, the representatives of the Committee for Environmental Protection stated that out of 17,000 tons of carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere (emitted annually by Dushanbe enterprises), 14,500 tons belong to the Dushanbe-2 thermal power plant.

Recall, President Emomali Rahmon on November 2 virtually joined the High-Level Panel Meeting on Water and Climate.  

Speaking at the meeting, Tajik leader noted that Tajikistan’s glaciers were melting rapidly.  To date, more than 1,000 of Tajikistan's 14,000 glaciers have completely melted, Rahmon noted. 

“Over the past few decades, the total volume of glaciers in our country, which make up more than 60% of the water resources of the Central Asian region, has decreased by almost a third,” said Tajik president.  “…Given the serious consequences of continuing this process, we previously proposed proclaiming 2025 as the International Year for Glaciers Preservation and setting a date for World Glaciers Day. I have also previously called for the creation of the International Fund for Glaciers Preservation.”

Rahmon noted that in recent decades, they have more often seen a significant change in the climate cycle in the Central Asian region. 

“Our winters have become colder and longer, and our summers have become hotter and drier.  In this regard, the region is experiencing a significant increase in the demand for electricity and water resources,” said Tajik leader.  “In addition, the hydrological cycle is changing, which leads to changes in river flow in the region, both in volume and in time.”

Tajikistan is not a Party to the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution and its protocols. However, the country acceded to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Like other countries of the region, Tajikistan is participating in the UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow, UK, where its delegation will report on the progress in the field of environmental protection.