Tajikistan is facing stricter electricity supply restrictions this year compared to last winter, with some regions experiencing only 2 to 4 hours of power per day. The primary reason for these restrictions is the drop in water levels in the reservoir powering the Nurek hydropower plant (HPP), a major source of electricity for the country.

Severe restrictions across the country

Social media users across various regions have reported power being available for just a few hours daily. For instance, residents of Panjakent and Hisor have shared that they receive power only for 2–3 hours a day, with some areas reporting outages for as long as 22 hours.

One Hisor resident said electricity is provided from 6:00 to 7:30 a.m. and from 5:45 to 8:00 p.m., while others mentioned that power is available for one to three hours per day. Many also worry about the lack of heating, as some rural areas lack stoves and coal has become too expensive.

Cause of power shortages: lower water levels in Nurek Reservoir

The main cause of the power shortages is the reduced water level in the Nurek Reservoir, which powers the Nurek HPP, supplying around 50–70% of Tajikistan's electricity. Representatives from the Electricity Distribution Networks confirm that the country is following a strict schedule, with power available from 5:30 a.m. to 8:00 a.m. and from 5:30 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.

According to Doustmurod Tohirov, head of the Regulatory Center for Electric Power Transmission Networks, the restrictions have intensified in recent weeks. "Currently, 47 million kWh of electricity is being supplied per day, and each regional service determines its hours of supply to avoid exceeding the limit," he explained.

Water levels in the Nurek Reservoir have dropped by more than 2.5 meters compared to last year, prompting the need for stricter limits. Qurbon Ahmadzoda, a representative of the Barqi Tojik company, confirmed that as of November 21, approximately 4 meters of the reservoir's reserve water has been used up.

Conserving power to avoid a crisis in January-March

Energy experts explain that the Nurek Reservoir is typically filled from May to September, with water usage beginning in late September. However, this year, there was a lack of rainfall, and river levels dropped. Kamoliddin Sirojiddinov, an energy expert, warned that if the water levels continue to fall, power generation could be compromised in January through March, potentially damaging multiple HPP units.

Additionally, Sirojiddinov suggested that Tajikistan could increase its power generation from other sources, such as the Sangtuda-1 HPP, which operates at just 40-45% capacity. However, Barqi Tojik purchases a limited amount of electricity due to high tariffs.

High losses and theft of electricity

Experts also point to high electricity losses, which exacerbate the situation. One anonymous expert noted that while official losses are estimated at 17-22%, the real losses could reach 40%. The expert suggested that increasing funding for thermal power stations could help alleviate the strain on electricity supply.

Infrastructure modernization needed

Sirojiddinov emphasized that Tajikistan needs to invest in modernizing its infrastructure. Over 400 transformers need repairs, and many transmission lines in rural areas need to be replaced. Updating equipment in cities and villages is crucial to preventing future power outages.

Roghun HPP: a key source of energy for the country

Some experts believe that mismanagement of the Rogun HPP water resources may have contributed to the water shortage in the Nurek Reservoir. According to sources, the water level in Rogun was not raised to the planned 110 meters by the end of September, causing a reduction in water flow to Nurek.

Expectations for the Roghun HPP

President Emomali Rahmon has stated that the energy deficit will be fully resolved once the Roghun HPP is completed, which is expected to solve the country's electricity shortage by May 2027.